I looked through Bowers’ Top 50 list and agree with much of it, but I thought he put too much emphasis as a whole on the "candidate quality" of the Republican incumbent, and too little on the makeup of the district. Connie Morella was a helluva politician surviving numerous tough challenges in a Dem-leaning district, but all it took was a Chris Van Hollen (our new DCCC chair) to take her down. If you look at the incumbents defeated in recent times, most lost because they were fundamentally out of step with their districts and ran up against a challenger who was able to competently remind voters of it and present a viable alternative. At this stage in the cycle, we have to figure and hope and work to get the best possible challenger in every race. With that in mind, it’s hard to make the case that, say, Marilyn Musgrave is in more danger of losing than, say, Chris Shays if each has an equally strong challenger.
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